What can previous World Cup finals tell us about what to expect in Qatar?
Is the World Cup this year more difficult? Should teams that qualified through the playoffs be disqualified now? Is playing in Asia appropriate for certain countries?
We look at these factors - as well as many others - to see which teams could be well positioned for a successful World Cup.
There have been six previous tournaments with the same format of 32 teams categorized into eight groups of four, and these six tournaments have made 384 matches to look at and see if any patterns emerge.
In the analysis below we'll look at these six tournaments - from 1998-2018 - unless otherwise noted
How does location affect the performance of travel teams?
In the past three tournaments to be played in Europe, European nations have filled 10 out of the 16 places in the knockout stage. When the finals were held outside Europe, that number drops to an average of seven.
South American teams benefit the most from this drop, while twice as many Asian teams reach the playoffs when the finals are not in Europe.
Is there a correlation between the playoffs and how well teams progress in the finals?
Five of the past six World Cup winners have been Europeans - with the exception of 1998 champions France, who automatically entered that tournament as host, they have all had excellent qualifying campaigns.
The other four champions - Italy in 2006, Spain in 2010, Germany in 2014, and France in 2018 - are either unbeaten or have lost only once in 10 qualifying matches. These win percentages (with a half-win tie) were 80% and above.
In qualifying for this year's event, a whole group of European countries met the 80% threshold: Denmark (95%), England and Germany (90%), Serbia and Belgium (87.5%), Spain, Switzerland and France (all 81.3%), Croatia and the Netherlands (both 80%).
How strong is this year's squad based on the world rankings compared to previous tournaments?
Using the FIFA World Team Ranking at the start of the tournament, we can get a feel of how competitive the tournament can be. Here is the standings for the 32 teams for each tournament:
Because of FIFA rules that dictate the number of teams from each continent, there are teams that are not in the finals ranking higher than some teams.
The most notable absentees this time around are Italy - sixth in the world - but Colombia (17), Peru (23), Sweden (25), Ukraine (27), Chile (29) and Nigeria (32) would all have taken part if the world rankings decided to qualify regardless of location.
While seven low-ranked teams participating this time may seem like a big percentage, it's actually the lowest number during the 32-team era. Some finals saw as many as 11 teams outside of the top 32.
So this time it's a tough tournament to succeed in.
The combined rankings suggest England and Wales are in the toughest group in Qatar - the only group in which each team is in the world's top 20 as of October 30.
How do supplement winners typically perform?
Wales, in their first tournament in 64 years, qualified through the play-offs in Europe alongside Poland and Portugal.
At first glance, it may seem like a backstory - but recent history shows that teams that qualify in this way can make a huge impact.
When comparing European teams, 67% of qualifying make it to the knockout stages, compared to only 57% of teams that qualify directly.
Two of the past six World Cup finals have seen European teams enter through play-off games - Germany in 2002 and Croatia in 2018. In addition, Croatia (1998) and Turkey (2002) reached the quarter-finals and three more. The playoff teams reached the quarter-finals.
Why do title holders struggle?
Since the 1990s, the World Cup holders have won one knockout match in five tournaments, when Brazil beat Ghana in 2006. In fact, the cup has not been held since 1962 and in 14 tournaments since then, only two of the holders have gone past the quarter-finals. .
Holders' problems often start with a single match. In the 12 tournaments since England won their opening match against Romania in 1970, only three title-holders have opened with wins. And four of the previous five champions didn't even make it out of their group.
why? Well, four years is a long time in football. On average, only 50% of the players who start final for the winners will start their first team match in the next tournament.
Italy have fielded only three members of their starting lineup since the 2006 final when they started their defense with a draw with Paraguay in 2010.
How often does a low-ranking team get upset?
If you were expecting the two best ranked teams to always emerge from each group, you would be surprised.
Naturally, six of the 16 places in the knockout stage will be occupied by the teams ranked third and fourth in their group. This is a surprising rate of 32%. During these same six tournaments, 34% of the lowest ranked teams won their knockout matches
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